Rabobank 10Y Green SNP: FV MS+88 vs IPT MS+115a — 27bp at the Open
Summary
Cooperatieve Rabobank UA (Aa3/A-/A+) opened books on a EUR benchmark 10Y green senior non-preferred at MS+115 area, with order interest above €2bn ex-JLM. Fair value sits at MS+88, anchored on the September 2025 RABOBK 3.548% 10/08/35 trading at MS+86, with a 3bp curve extension and a 1bp greenium adjustment. IPT carries roughly 27bp of concession at the open. Base case landing MS+92, deal size €1.0-1.25bn, NIC ~4bp.
Building fair value
Step 1 — Own-curve anchor
The cleanest reference is Rabobank's existing 10Y SNP point, printed seven months ago.
Bond Residual I-Spread RABOBK 3.548 10/08/35 9.5Y MS+86 RABOBK 3.822 07/26/34 8.3Y MS+84 RABOBK 1.000 01/19/34 7.75Y MS+84 RABOBK 0.625 02/25/33 6.8Y MS+69
The 7Y→9.5Y SNP slope is ~17bp, or roughly 6bp per year. Extending 9.5Y to 10Y adds 3-4bp to the curve.
Step 2 — Cross-issuer triangulation
Rabobank trades consistently through its closest Dutch peer at the SNP layer.
Bond Residual I-Spread ABNANV 3.750 01/16/36 9.7Y MS+101 ABNANV 4.500 11/21/34 8.6Y MS+90 RABOBK 3.548 10/08/35 9.5Y MS+86
The Rabo-ABN SNP basis sits 12-15bp tighter for Rabo, reflecting the cooperative-structure premium and the rating differential. This confirms the Rabo 10Y SNP curve point in the high MS+80s.
Step 3 — Greenium
Bank SNP greenium has compressed materially in 2026 to roughly 1-2bp. Apply -1bp to arrive at FV ~MS+88.
NIC and landing forecast
Scenario Spread NIC vs FV Yield IPT MS+115 +27bp ~4.26% Mid-tightening MS+100 +12bp ~4.11% Base case landing MS+92 +4bp ~4.03% Tight scenario MS+90 +2bp ~4.01% FV MS+88 0 ~3.99%
Books above €2bn ex-JLM at IPT are constructive but not blowout for a 10Y SNP. Tightening of 20-23bp into the low MS+90s is the central expectation. A close above €4bn would justify -25bp to MS+90.
Trade view
The 10/35s at MS+86 are the post-break anchor. Anything wider than MS+90 at landing screens cheap to that curve point and offers post-break tightening potential. Macro tape is supportive — iTraxx Main 60bp, XOver 295bp, VIX sub-20.
Expected size: €1.0-1.25bn | Expected landing: MS+92 | Expected NIC: 4bp.
