United Group €625m 7NC3 SSN: IPT 6.5% vs FV 6.30–6.40% — A Fair Print, Not a Steal

29 April 2026

United Group launched a €625m 7NC3 senior secured note on 29 April at 6.5% area IPT, refinancing existing 3.625% February 2028 SSNs. Triangulating the issuer curve against the broader B/BB- EUR secured telco sector points to fair value of 6.30–6.40%, or Z+335–345 over 7y swaps. That implies 10–15bp of new issue concession at IPT, with most likely pricing at 6.375%. The deal is fair, not cheap; sector levels cap further tightening.

The deal

United Group BV (ADRBID) — the leading telecommunications and media operator in Southeastern Europe, controlled by BC Partners — launched a €625m 7-year non-call 3 senior secured note on 29 April with IPT at 6.5% area. Use of proceeds is the refinancing of the existing 3.625% SSNs due February 2028: a clean, leverage-neutral take-out. Expected ratings are B2 (Moody's) / B (S&P) at both corporate and instrument level. JPM acts as global coordinator and B&D, with eleven additional banks in the syndicate including KKR Capital Markets — the latter reflecting the sponsor relationship.

The deal lands on the back of ADRBID's heaviest primary cycle on record: a December 2025 €400m 6.25% Jan-32 SSN, a January 2026 €1.13bn FRN due 2033 priced at E+325 (100bp tighter than the bonds it replaced), and a €355m 8.875% PIYC PIK note due 2031. Net leverage has been broadly held flat through these transactions; the 7NC3 extends the maturity profile cleanly to May 2033.

Step 1: build the issuer curve

ADRBID has a usable secondary curve, with two recently issued SSN prints providing reliable anchor points.

Bond Maturity Years YTW (mid) Z-spread ADRBID 4.625% Aug-28 15/08/28 2.3 ~4.49% ~+186 ADRBID 5.25% Feb-30 01/02/30 3.8 ~5.36% ~+261 ADRBID 6.50% Oct-31 31/10/31 5.5 ~5.97% ~+294 ADRBID 6.25% Jan-32 31/01/32 5.8 ~6.10% ~+324

The Jan-32 SSN — printed in December 2025 — is the cleanest anchor for the new 7y deal: same ranking, same issuer entity, only 1.2 years shorter than the May-33 target. The curve slope from Feb-30 to Jan-32 averages ~33bp per year of tenor, but visibly flattens beyond the 5y point: the move from Oct-31 to Jan-32 is roughly 30bp over three months of additional duration, which looks rich and is partly a recent-print effect.

A reasonable curve extension from Jan-32 to May-33 (16 months) is around +15bp, producing pure-issuer-curve fair value of Z+335–340 / 6.25–6.30% YTW. On that build alone, IPT 6.5% area implies ~20–25bp of new issue concession — plenty of room for the deal to grind in toward 6.25%.

Step 2: sector reality check

The issuer-curve build is necessary but not sufficient. ADRBID's curve is small, recently re-paved, and the Jan-32 print itself may be tight relative to where the broader EUR secured telco/cable market clears for a B/B+ name. The deepest European secured peer with a complete EUR curve is VMED (Virgin Media O2), and the picture there is materially different.

Bond Rating Maturity Years YTW (mid) Z-spread VMED 5.625% Apr-32 EUR (€1.81bn) BB- 15/04/32 6.0 ~6.48% ~+353 VMED VFN VII 7.5% Jul-33 EUR (€550m) B- 15/07/33 7.2 ~9.01% ~+602 VMED 3.25% Jan-31 EUR (€950m) BB- 31/01/31 4.8 ~5.37% ~+247

VMED's BB- secured 6y benchmark trades at Z+353. Extending the curve to 7y adds another 10–15bp, so a 7y BB- secured comp clears around Z+365–370. ADRBID is one notch lower at B+/B. On a strict ratings-and-tenor basis, an ADRBID 7y SSN should price wider than VMED, not tighter.

The structurally subordinated VMED Vendor Financing 7.5% Jul-33 at Z+602 sets a hard floor: ADRBID's SSN, more senior in the capital structure, should be ~200–250bp inside that — i.e. Z+350–400. This range straddles IPT.

Step 3: reconciling the two builds

The two builds disagree, and the gap is what defines the trade. The issuer curve points to Z+335. The sector points to Z+365–370 minimum for a BB-, with a notch wider for a B+. The most defensible reconciliation is that ADRBID's own curve has run mildly rich relative to broader sector clearing levels — partly explained by the credit's strong primary momentum, sponsor support, and a refinancing-driven technical bid in the existing line — and the new 7y print will land somewhere between the two: closer to the issuer curve than to the full sector cap, but not all the way through it.

Fair value range: Z+335–345 / 6.30–6.40% YTW. Mid-point: 6.35%.

NIC math and likely landing

At IPT 6.5% area (~Z+350 on 7y EUR swaps at 2.99):

• vs issuer curve only: ~10–15bp of new issue concession

• vs sector-blended FV: ~5–15bp

At likely landing of 6.375% (~Z+340):

• vs issuer curve: ~0bp — pricing essentially on the line

• vs sector-blended FV: ~0–5bp

A print at 6.25% would close 25bp inside the BB- VMED 7y comp on a curve-adjusted basis — defensible only with a heavy book and active real-money demand, and an outcome that should make sector traders sceptical of the level. The base case is that the deal tightens 12.5bp from IPT to 6.375%, with risk skewed toward landing at IPT on a softer book rather than tightening to 6.25%.

BPV and sizing context

For a €625m 7y bond at par with a 6.5% annual coupon:

• Modified duration ≈ 5.49

• BPV per €100 ≈ €0.055

• BPV on full deal size ≈ €343k per bp

A 12.5bp tightening from IPT to 6.375% therefore moves about €4.3m of pricing across the full distribution.

What could move the view

• Live ADRBID Jan-32 mid stronger than Z+324: If real-money flows tighten the existing line into a Z+310 handle, the curve build pulls FV in to ~Z+325 and 6.25% becomes credible.

• VMED secured curve weakening 10–15bp: Sector-wide HY softness — consistent with March's net outflows from EUR HY funds — re-prices the BB- comp wider and lets ADRBID print at IPT or even leak.

• Tender / consent dynamics on the 3.625% Feb-28: If management is exchanging rather than calling outright, take-up may shift the new-money component and book quality.

• Book size: A €4–5bn book at IPT typically forces 25–37.5bp of compression. €2–3bn keeps pricing close to IPT, with the deal more likely to land at 6.375% or 6.5% than 6.25%.

Bottom line

IPT 6.5% area offers ~10–15bp of concession against a curve-and-sector-blended fair value of 6.30–6.40%. The deal is fair at IPT, mildly tight at 6.25%, and most likely prints at 6.375%. Sector context — particularly VMED secured at Z+353 over 6y — argues against ADRBID clearing significantly inside its own Jan-32 curve. Modest concession, capped upside, clean refinancing trade.