CFF EUR 600m 10y social covered: FV MS+52–54 vs IPT MS+59
CFF EUR 600m 10y social covered: FV MS+52–54 vs IPT MS+59
CFF is in the market today with a EUR 600m WNG 10y social covered bond (May 2036) at IPT of MS+59 area. As an Aaa/AAA French legislative covered, with proceeds earmarked for social housing and healthcare under the BPCE framework, the deal occupies well-mapped territory. Triangulation from the issuer’s own outstanding benchmarks and recent CAFFIL peer prints points to fair value around MS+52–54, implying roughly 5bp of NIC. Mid-50s reoffer looks achievable on standard demand.
CFF curve build
The issuer’s own benchmark complex provides the cleanest first read. Spreads have steepened at roughly 4–5bp per year through the belly.
| Maturity | Tenor | MS spread |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2032 | ~6y | +36 |
| Mar 2033 | ~7y | +41 |
| May 2034 | ~8y | +46 |
| Mar 2035 | ~9y | +50 |
| May 2036 (new) | ~10y | fair +54–55 |
CAFFIL peer check
CAFFIL is the closest available comp — same Aaa French legislative covered structure. Three outstanding prints bracket the new maturity directly.
| Issued | Maturity | MS spread |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2035 (~9y) | +52 |
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2036 (~10y) | +53 |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2036 (~10y) | +54 |
| May 2025 | May 2037 (~11y) | +60 |
CFF historically trades 1–2bp through CAFFIL, giving an adjusted read of MS+51–53.
Triangulation
| Method | FV |
|---|---|
| CFF curve roll | +54–55 |
| CAFFIL Jan 2036 less 1–2bp | +51–52 |
| CAFFIL May 2037 less curve | +53–54 |
| Composite | +52–54 |
Reoffer scenarios
| Level | NIC | Read |
|---|---|---|
| +57 | +4bp | Soft book |
| +55 | +2bp | Normal demand |
| +54 | +1bp | Base case |
| +53 | flat | Strong book |
| +52 | through fair | ESG-driven |
Size and landing
Expected book of EUR 2.0–2.75bn (3.3–4.5x cover) for an Aaa French legislative covered with social label is consistent with recent CAFFIL and BPCE SFH benchmark patterns. Most likely reoffer at MS+54 with potential for MS+53 if the social label generates incremental ESG demand. Greenium of 0–1bp versus a hypothetical conventional CFF reference is the working assumption.
