Alphabet 6-Part EUR: IPTs MS+65/82.5/95/125/155/205 vs FV MS+27.5/43.5/56.5/86.5/110/167.5

Alphabet 6-Part EUR: IPTs MS+65/82.5/95/125/155/205 vs FV MS+27.5/43.5/56.5/86.5/110/167.5

Alphabet (Aa2/AA+) opened books on a six-part EUR benchmark spanning 4Y to 37Y. IPTs across the curve sit roughly 38–45bps wide of where triangulated fair value suggests, with the front-end and 19Y showing the largest gaps. Concession this generous typically signals deal size ambition — likely €7-9bn target — with bookrunners calibrating room for 20-25bps of tightening to a final NIC inside 20bps. Six-month USD/EUR/GBP funding pattern continues.

Fair Value Build

Triangulating off three reference curves: AAPL (Aaa-equivalent EUR, scarcity-tight), AMZN (Aa3/AA-, March 2026 vintage), and GOOGL's own existing EUR curve from the November 2025 print.

Observed rating differentials in EUR US tech:

Step	I-spread differential
AAPL → GOOGL (2 notches)	~15-18bps
GOOGL → AMZN (1-2 notches)	~17-20bps

Anchor points across the curve (i-spread to swaps):

Tenor	AAPL	GOOGL existing	AMZN
~3Y	+5	+23	+30
~6Y	—	+42	+61
~9Y	—	+59	+78
~13Y	—	+85	+100
~19Y	—	+110	+127
~37Y	—	+164	+187

IPT vs Fair Value

Tenor	IPT	Fair Value	NIC at IPT
4Y	MS+65/70	MS+25-30	~40bps
6Y	MS+80/85	MS+42-45	~38bps
8Y	MS+95 area	MS+55-58	~38bps
13Y	MS+125 area	MS+85-88	~38bps
19Y	MS+155 area	MS+108-112	~45bps
37Y	MS+205 area	MS+165-170	~38bps

Expected Landing & Size

Tenor	Expected Final	NIC at Final	Indicative size
4Y	MS+42-45	~15-18bps	€1-1.5bn
6Y	MS+58-60	~15-18bps	€1-1.5bn
8Y	MS+72-75	~16-19bps	€1.5-2bn
13Y	MS+102-105	~16-19bps	€1.5-2bn
19Y	MS+132-135	~22-25bps	€1-1.5bn
37Y	MS+182-185	~14-17bps	€0.5-1bn

Total deal size estimate: €7-9bn, mirroring AMZN's March 2026 six-tranche EUR jumbo template (€7.5bn).

Observations for New-Issue Investors

The 4Y carries the largest IPT-to-FV cushion but limited absolute yield. The 8Y and 13Y belly tranches offer the cleanest combination of consistent NIC compression and absolute yield (~4.0-4.5%). The 19Y stands out as the tranche likely retaining the largest residual NIC at final — the AMZN 2045 secondary level acts as a binding constraint on how tight a one-notch-better issuer can clear. The 37Y will price tight relative to its IPT generosity given AMZN's 2064 already trades at MS+187, leaving little compression headroom.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The observations represent analytical commentary based on publicly available market data. Spreads, fair value estimates, and pricing forecasts are indicative only and subject to change. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decision.